WEEK 8 RANKINGS
Math, statistics, analytics. Those words sound boring probably because they are. But its good to have some knowledge about each when playing Fantasy Football. Each week, every major sports site posts rankings for the short-term (current week) and long-term (rest of season). Are they going to get it right every time? No, but it will help you make a more informed decision. So if having all the statistics, facts and analysis does not guarantee victory, what does? Luck - injuries, contract hold outs, trades, and poor performances happen to every team. Even indirect injuries can have an impact. What is an indirect injury? There were 3 Miami players kept (Tua, Tyreek Hill and De'von Achane.) Tua gets hurt and makes the other guys virtually unplayable.
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So with that in mind, I have come up with the "Luck" rankings midway through the 2024 Season. Each team has been broken down into one of these three categories:
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Lucky Teams
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You are what your record says you are (neither lucky or unlucky)
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Bad Luck Teams.
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Lucky Teams:
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Mel Kiper's Best Available - Record: 6-1. Points Scored: 1,133
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They're humming on all cylinders with consistent scoring each week. They've been able to avoid any major direct injuries, but Achane took a hit as noted above. Rookie Jayden Daniels has a rib injury that could cause him to miss a game or two.
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Black Ghostbusters - 6-1/1,027 points
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Another team that has avoided major injuries and who's keepers are performing as expected. Not nearly as explosive as MKBA, but consistently score in the 140-160 per game range. Based on their weekly point totals, they have an expected W/L percentage of 54% compared to their actual W/L pct of 85%.
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Wrath of Kahn - 4-3/947 Points. Not your prototypical lucky team, but Kahn used his slow start to stockpile waiver wire contributors in the early part of the season. The Keepers (Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill) have been a disappointment, but early round draft picks Derrick Henry and Diontae Johnson have made major contributions and they struck gold with 19th round draft pick Jordan Mason who is currently a top 12 RB. They have also had incredible scheduling luck as well. They have a W/L pct of 57% when their weekly score total translates to a winning pct of 39%.
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Dark Helmet - 3-4/978 Points. I'm sorry, any team that auto-drafts and rolls out there with a QB rotation of Daniel Jones, Bo Nix and Tua and stays competitive every week is lucky. And the Tua injury is not bad luck, it is an inevitability based on his history.
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You-are-What-You-Are-Teams
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Skoal Bandits - 3-4/920 Points. The bad? Anthony Richardson looks like a bust for a 2nd year in a row. But that is more than offset by the good fortune of drafting Baker Mayfield in the 6th round and grabbing Sam Darnold off the waiver wire. The Brandon Aiyuk injury is a killer, but he wasn't performing well before getting hurt.
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Peeping Tomlins - 4-3/1,025 points. The Keepers are doing their job and the Steeler Stack seems to be working. They have been relatively injury-free, but Nico Collins is on the shelf for the next month. Their WR depth should provide enough cover to get by in the interim.
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'69 Olds - 2-5/844 points. The Isaiah Pacheco injury was a killer, but every team has an injury or two. Jalen Hurts and DJ Moore have lived up to preseason expectations and some might say the Patrick Mahomes downturn should have been expected. He has not scored more than 20 points in a game since Week 12 last year. Ray needs to be using his top slot on the waiver wire to add some reinforcements. Maybe reach out to Jimmy for some tips.
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Springfield Flanders - 4-3/991 Points. I thought of putting this team in the "Bad Luck" category, but there is more than enough depth here to cover the Nacua and AJ Brown injuries. The RB's are solid and the TEs are coming around. If Nacua can come back relatively soon, they should be in a good spot to claim one of the wild card spots. Jerome Ford was an 11th round steal.
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Bad Luck Teams
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Milford Football Team - 1-6/883 Points. It started with the Week 1 injury to CMC, followed by injuries to Jordan Love and Davante Adams. The rookie draft-a-thon was a failure as none of them have emerged as a reliable fantasy option. BUT... The QB play has been fantastic, Kareem Hunt has been an instant must-start RB and Zay Flowers is becoming a consistent performer. If CMC can get back on the field, CJ has the horses to make a late postseason push.
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Stick Rock - 2-5/ 1,079 Points. Another team I debated putting in this category, but the Won/Loss record is just too comical to ignore. They were cruising along through the first 6 weeks building a 100-point cushion in the points standing, but they gave most of that back after a sub-100 point showing in Week 7. The Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor injuries have taken there toll, but it should have been expected. Those guys never stay on the field. The Raheed Shaheed season ending injury is a big hit to team depth. This team is the anti-Kahn as their winning pct should be 68% instead of 28%.​

This chart summarizes the luck factor for each team based on scheduling. Term definitions are as follows:
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Actual Win % is your current W/L pct.
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All Play Win % is what your record would be if you played every team each week. For example, Skoal Bandits had the 6th highest win total in Week 7. Therefore, his Week 7 Record would be 4-5 (Higher point total than 4 teams and lower point total than 5)
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Variance is your actual Win % minus the expected win total based on all-play pct.
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Actual Wins = Real Win total.
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Expected Wins = All Win Pct X number of games played.
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+/- win is how many wins you are over or under the expected win total.

1 . Mel Kipers Best Available (Last Week #1)
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​MKBA broke through this week with the highest weekly point total in KAOS this season (192 Points), despite losing Jayden Daniels (5) on the first series of the game. Lamar Jackson (44), Jahmyr Gibbs (25) and Brian Thomas Jr (22) led the scoring.​
2. Ghostbusters (Last Week #2)
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This team is on cruise control with their set it and forget it lineup. Breece Hall (26), Amon-Ra St Brown (25) and Kyler Murray (24) led them to an easy win over Helmet this week.​​​​
3. Peeping Tomlin's (Last Week #4)
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​It wasn't pretty, but the Tomlins did just enough to earn a victory this week in a low-scoring 124-98 victory. Jared Goff (22), Justin Jefferson (21) and Kyren Williams (19) were the high scorers.
4. Stick Rock (Last Week #3)
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Stick Rock decided to avoid the Holiday Rush this year by starting their swoon in October as they fail to crack 100 points this week. Geno Smith (21) was the only starter to exceed 20-points this week.​
5. Springfield Flanders (Last Week #6)
​Flanders win their 2nd game in a row as they rolled to a 177-156 victory over MFT. Joe Mixon (27), David Njoku (23) and AJ Brown (21) paced them to an easy victory.
6. Dark Helmet (Last Week # 5)
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​A poor showing this week as Helmet is showing signs of fading, losing their 2nd game in a row. Saquon Barkley (27) was good but nobody else was as Deebo Samuel (0) and Chris Godwin (13) got hurt and Conrad Sutton (0) stayed healthy.
8. Skoal Bandits (Last Week # 8)
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​Time might be starting to run out for the Bandits as they are on the outskirts of playoff contention. To make matters more dire, it looks like they will be without WR Mike Evans (9) who hurt his hamstring on MNF. Baker Mayfield (33) and Bijan Robinson (24) were the high scorers this week.
9. Milford Football Team (Last Week #9)
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MFT takes another L as they ran into a buzzsaw this week. Josh Allen (25), Tank Bigsby (24) and Jordan Love (22) played well in a 177-156 loss to Flanders.
10. '69 Olds (Last Week #10)
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Things aren't getting any better for our 10th place team. They had a prime opportunity to pick up a W, and for a brief time late in the MNF game it looked like it would happen. Then Derrick Henry decided to peel off an 80-yard run, then caught a garbage TD to seal Ray's fate. Jalen Hurts (24), KWIII (23) and Mark Andrews (20) had strong showings in the defeat.​

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