WAIVER WIRE GOLD!

I’m going with a little different trade update this week. In an effort to understand why so few trades get made, I looked at various theories. 1. People overvalue what they have on their roster, 2. Poeple do not want ot get burned on a trade and 3, the belief people have that they can pick up what they need off of the waiver wire. While I think there is some truth to numbers 1 and 2, I am going to dig into the 3rd. So I went back and looked at all the waiver wire acquisitions made through Week 6 (D/ST and K excluded) to see if there are any trends that can be found.

First, I’ll start with the positional breakdown. Through the October 11th Waiver Wire period, there have been:

· 7 QBs have been selected. I would only consider two of those selections as playable. Baker Mayfield (averaging 17 points/game) and Desmond Ridder who has scored 28 and 20 points in the 2 weeks after he was claimed.

· 18 Running Backs have been claimed, of which only 3 can be considered playable. Zack Moss (21/ppg), Kyren Williams (19/ppg) and Jerome Ford (13/ppg). What do all three of those guys have in common? They all got their chance when the player in front of them went down with an injury (Jonathan Taylor/Cam Akers/Nick Chubb respectively).

· 17 Receivers have been picked up and only 4 of them

have averaged more than 10 points a game. They are Adam Thielen (23.8/ppg) Puka Nakua (19.92 ppg), Rashid Shaheed (19.15 ppg) and Josh Downs (13/ppg).

· 9 TEs have been selected and only Dalton Shultz (16.1) and Jonnu Smith (12.15) have played well. No other TE claimed off waivers has averaged over 8 points per game.

NOTE: I am only including the point totals the player has scored since being added to a roster. So, if a player exploded one week for 25 points and you decided to grab him on the waiver wire, I only included the points scored in games after he was claimed.

The teams that have benefitted the most from the waiver wire are:

Black Ghostbusters – The lesson here is if you are going to lose, lose early. Puka Nakua and Adam Thielen have averaged 19.7 and 23.8 ppg since being claimed.

Skoal Bandits – Another bad team early that was able to add Zack Moss to his lineup and trade him for some help next year.

Dark Helmet – Are you seeing a trend here? Yes, another cellar dweller. He’d be even higher on this list if he was a little more aggressive on the waiver wire each week. But he got himself a reliable starting QB in Baker Mayfield (17.05).

Peeping Tomlins – Jared has been able to keep his team afloat despite a number of high profile injuries. The main reason is 1. He picked up RB Kyren Williams (19/ppg) and Jonnu Smith (12/ppg) and 2. Traded away his injured players for plug-ins that can help him this year.

Honorable Mention:

Wrath of Kahn – Jimmy grabbed Desmond Ridder off the scrap heap, and he has averaged 24 ppg. It’s a small sample size (2 games) but he has the weapons to throw to in Atlanta.

So what have we learned? That unless your team is in the bottom third of the standings, you aren’t going to find a difference maker on the waiver wire. If you really want a consistent upgrade for your lineup, the only way to do that is trade for a player that is already on someone else’s roster. Look and see what other teams have on their bench and if you see someone that can help your team, make an offer. Otherwise, you are going to continue to be disappointed every Wednesday morning when you check the league’s transactions and see that replacement player you put a claim on went to a last place team.

Here is a team by team breakdown of waiver wire acquisitions through October 11th, 2023: